The 2026/27 wheat season is revealing sharp differences between major producing regions. Global output may fall slightly below last season’s exceptional level, but improving harvest prospects in Russia, Ukraine and Argentina could compensate for weaker production elsewhere and keep international prices under pressure.
Russia is expected to remain the market’s dominant force. Its wheat harvest could approach 90 million tonnes after early results showed substantially higher yields in southern regions. Ukraine’s cultivated area remains below pre-war levels, but favourable weather has improved yields. However, escalating attacks on Black Sea ports and shipping could restrict exports from both countries and disrupt global supplies.
Conditions are less promising in the European Union, where prolonged drought and summer heat have damaged crops, particularly in parts of France. The United States faces an even steeper decline: its total wheat harvest could be 23% lower than last year, while hard red winter wheat production may fall to its lowest level since 1957/58.
“Conditions are less promising in the European Union, where prolonged drought and summer heat have damaged crops, particularly in parts of France.”
EuroAsia.News Editorial, reporting from Moscow
Argentina’s outlook has improved as better weather and lower input costs encouraged farmers to expand planting. Production is forecast at 21.6 million tonnes, potentially supporting exports of 15.5 million tonnes. Australia, meanwhile, has reduced its expectations because of dry conditions.
Overall, strong supplies from Russia, Ukraine and Argentina may limit price increases, but weaker harvests in the United States, Europe and Australia should prevent a major global surplus. Weather, war and the security of Black Sea trade routes will therefore remain decisive for the wheat market.
