China is expanding oil tanker construction, South Korea dominates LNG shipbuilding, and Russia is developing giant icebreaking gas carriers. With hundreds of vessels being built or ordered, the industry faces an extraordinary investment cycle — and the risk of another shipping overcapacity crisis.
The world is preparing for one of the largest tanker construction waves in half a century. By October 2026, shipbroker Hartland Shipping Services counted 319 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on order, equivalent to 34.2% of the existing fleet's capacity.
At the same time, a separate industry tracker recorded 364 LNG carriers under construction, while Flex LNG reported a narrower commercial orderbook of approximately 285 vessels.
The two markets are not directly comparable: VLCCs transport crude oil, while LNG carriers transport natural gas cooled to approximately −162°C.
Yet together they illustrate the extraordinary amount of capital being invested in transporting fossil fuels.
From six supertankers to more than 100 a year
A standard VLCC carries approximately two million barrels of oil, equivalent to roughly 318 million litres. At $70 per barrel, one loaded vessel transports approximately $140 million worth of crude oil.
The 319 new VLCCs on order represent a combined potential carrying capacity of approximately 638 million barrels — $44.7 billion worth of oil at that illustrative price.
The sharpest change is in delivery schedules:
2024: 1 new VLCC delivered
2025: 6 new VLCCs delivered
2028: More than 100 new VLCCs projected
2029: More than 100 new VLCCs projected
That means annual deliveries could exceed 2025 levels by more than sixteen times.
However, 47% of the existing VLCC fleet is at least 15 years old. A portion of the new ships will therefore replace ageing vessels rather than increase total capacity.
South Korea: 243 LNG carriers under construction
South Korea remains the leader in sophisticated LNG carrier construction.
The September 2026 Global Energy Monitor-linked tracker gives the following breakdown:
LNG carriers under construction — September 2026
South Korea: 243 vessels (67%)
China: 102 vessels (28%)
Russia: 15 vessels (4%)
United States: 4 vessels (1%)
South Korean shipyards are constructing approximately 2.4 times as many LNG carriers as Chinese yards, according to this tracker.
Samsung Heavy Industries alone secured orders for 20 LNG carriers by early October 2026. A two-vessel contract signed that month was worth approximately $494 million.
New conventional LNG carriers cost around $250 million each at Korean shipyards, compared with approximately $230 million at competing Chinese facilities.
On those indicative prices, South Korea's 243 vessels represent more than $60 billion in potential newbuilding value. This is a valuation illustration, not a reported aggregate contract amount.
Russia's 300-metre icebreaking gas giants
Russia's Zvezda shipyard follows a very different strategy, producing Arc7-class tankers specifically designed for Arctic LNG transport.
Its first two domestically assembled carriers, Aleksey Kosygin and Konstantin Posyet, measure 300 metres in length and almost 49 metres in width
Each carries 172,600 cubic metres of LNG, equivalent in liquid volume to approximately 69 Olympic-size swimming pools.
Their propulsion systems develop approximately 60 megawatts, and their ice-class design allows navigation through ice exceeding two metres thick under suitable conditions.
Because natural gas shrinks roughly 600 times when liquefied, a full cargo of 172,600 cubic metres of LNG can represent around 104 million cubic metres of natural gas after regasification.
Two such vessels can therefore carry approximately 207 million cubic metres of gas equivalent in one fully loaded voyage each.
Russia originally planned 15 Arc7 tankers for Arctic LNG 2, but sanctions and difficulties obtaining foreign technology disrupted production.
The first vessel was delivered in December 2025 and the second entered service during 2026.
The difference in industrial scale remains enormous: South Korea has hundreds of LNG carriers recorded in construction programmes, while Russia has only two delivered from its new domestic Arc7 series.
The $71 billion LNG orderbook
Flex LNG reported approximately 285 LNG carriers on order in August 2026, representing around 37% of the existing LNG fleet.
Its projections indicated:
- Approximately 55 deliveries during January–July 2026.
- Another 40–45 deliveries expected in the remainder of 2026.
- Approximately 95 deliveries in 2027.
- Approximately 80 deliveries in 2028.
At $250 million per carrier, the 285-vessel orderbook would represent approximately $71.25 billion in investment.
Combined with the VLCC construction pipeline, the two markets could plausibly involve more than $100 billion of future shipbuilding commitments. An exact combined order value cannot be established without vessel-specific contract prices.
China challenges South Korea
China is already the world's largest shipbuilding country by overall commercial output. Its next objective is to increase its share of expensive, technologically sophisticated LNG carriers.
By early October 2026, Clarkson Research figures showed 82 large LNG carriers ordered worldwide during the year, including 44 ordered from South Korean shipyards and 35 from Chinese shipyards.
The Korean–Chinese gap had narrowed substantially.
Chinese shipyards also benefit from domestic steel production, extensive construction infrastructure and access to financing.
Russia, meanwhile, is focused primarily on strategic autonomy for Arctic LNG projects rather than competing with South Korea for the international conventional LNG carrier market.
Could the boom become a shipping crisis?
There is a striking contradiction in the market.
Oil and LNG carriers typically remain in service for decades, yet shipowners are commissioning hundreds of additional vessels while long-term fossil-fuel demand remains uncertain.
New LNG export projects in the United States and Qatar could support additional shipping demand. Longer voyages around Africa or through alternative trade corridors also increase demand for ships
But if newbuilding deliveries accelerate faster than cargo volumes, freight rates could fall sharply.
The last great tanker construction boom in the 1970s ended with excess capacity, falling charter rates and years of financial difficulties for shipowners.
The central question in 2026 is whether the hundreds of tankers being built represent necessary fleet renewal — or the beginnings of another global shipping surplus.
